BROOKHAVEN — Rain continues to linger in the forecast and heavy localized rainfall could lead to flash flooding. The National Weather Service warns Lincoln County and much of central to south Mississippi is at a risk of flash flooding from Wednesday to Friday.

Storms could bring a total rainfall of one to three inches with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms within a short duration. Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. At this time, NWS Jackson advises it is a limited threat of flash flooding.

Rain is forecast to set in Wednesday with a 60 percent chance of rain, 70 percent chance of precipitation Thursday and a 50 percent chance of rain Friday.

August ended with 1.21 inches of recorded rainfall in 2024 and did not end up in the top 10 driest Augusts on record thanks to late rainfall. Last week’s rainfall might have been enough to stave off discussion of a burn ban. It is unknown if the rain will alleviate current drought conditions in Mississippi.

Drought conditions

According to Drought.Gov, 27 percent of Lincoln County is under a moderate drought while 73 percent is under abnormally dry conditions. The new drought map will be released Thursday morning and will provide an up to date look at drought conditions. Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which measures soil moisture, shows Lincoln County is between 500 to 601 meaning it would take five to six inches of rainfall for soil moisture conditions to return to normal.

Hurricane Season

Lincoln County is at a low risk of wildfire danger at this time. Tropical cyclones are the weather hazard on the radar right now.

National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida shows three separate tropical disturbances across the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. One is a tropical wave producing disorganized thunderstorms and showers. It is moving across the southwestern Caribbean and could reach the Gulf of Mexico this week. It has a 40 percent chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the next seven days.

Another tropical disturbance is located in the Atlantic Ocean between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. NHC reports the tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and some slow development is expected. It has a 10 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

NHC warns a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean could form a tropical depression later this week. It has a 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

The Daily Leader will continue to monitor weather conditions especially in the gulf as hurricane season continues. Check back for more updates.